Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-102, FanDuel) · confidence 51.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (6.27 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs Dean Kremer (5.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–5; sim total 9.7 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -104 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -102 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 49.8%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Dean Kremer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.345 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.032, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 79°F at first pitch: run environment x1.034. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -104 | -110 / +100 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-102 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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