St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 41.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.8 pts · 0u
Hunter Dobbins (3.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Edward Cabrera (5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–5; sim total 9.6 against a 9 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +154 / -175 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -172 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 41.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 61.8%: 8.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hunter Dobbins under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.051. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +154 / -175 | +157 / -175 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o+100 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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