Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-129, DraftKings) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.0 pts · 0u
Cody Bradford (2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Jacob Lopez (5.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.6; sim total 9 against a 10 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -130 / +118 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.4% vs de-vigged market 55.2%: 5.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cody Bradford under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.277 trails league 0.314 by 0.036 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.068 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (67% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10 (-113, BetRivers) · model 59.1% · edge +6.0 pts · divergence +6.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -130 / +118 | -130 / +118 |
| Total | 10 | 10 (o-106 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10 (-113, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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