New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-118, FanDuel) · confidence 51.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.0 pts · 0u
Ryan Weathers (3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–3.9; sim total 7.8 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -119 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -118 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 53.1%: 3.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.290 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.0% · edge +4.0 pts · divergence +5.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -119 | +108 / -120 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-112 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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