Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-156, FanDuel) · confidence 58.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
George Klassen (5.52 ERA, 2.11 WHIP) vs Cristian Javier (6.68 ERA, 1.70 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.6; sim total 8.6 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +144 / -163 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.8% vs de-vigged market 60.2%: 4.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: George Klassen, Cristian Javier under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.266 trails league 0.315 by 0.049 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +144 / -163 | +139 / -160 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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