The slate for Tuesday, August 18, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, August 17, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:35 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Carlos Rodón (3.30) vs Shane Baz (4.00) | 4.2–4.2 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Keider Montero (3.22) vs Braxton Ashcraft (3.82) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Carson Whisenhunt (6.11) vs Foster Griffin (3.25) | 3.7–4.4 | 8.1 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Kyle Leahy (3.38) vs Andrew Abbott (4.13) | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | José Soriano (3.16) vs Nick Martinez (2.74) | 3.9–4.4 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Cade Gibson (5.61) vs Zack Wheeler (2.89) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Merrill Kelly (5.11) vs Ranger Suarez (3.25) | 4.2–5.2 | 9.4 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Robbie Ray (3.28) vs Zac Thornton (2.78) | 4–4 | 8 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Tyler Mahle (4.64) vs Zebby Matthews (5.34) | 4.9–4.5 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Bryce Miller (3.39) vs Kyle Harrison (2.99) | 3.7–4.7 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Jackson Kent (6.75) vs Cal Quantrill (3.44) | 4.9–4.4 | 9.3 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | George Klassen (5.52) vs Cristian Javier (6.68) | 4–4.6 | 8.6 / 9 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Eric Lauer (4.67) vs Ryan Feltner (5.59) | 6.4–6.1 | 12.5 / 11.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for KC inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 8:05 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for CWS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-147, BetUS) — Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +0.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.549. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers. Cal Quantrill (3.44 ERA) against Jackson Kent (6.75) is a 3.3-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 12.5 runs.
- The total: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox. The sim lands on 9.4 runs against a 8 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingNew York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +6.0 ptsmarket-provingSan Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 57.5% · edge +6.5 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — Under 9 (-105, LowVig.ag) · model 55.8% · edge +4.5 ptsR8-holdMiami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies ML (-210, FanDuel) · model 40.4% · edge -7.6 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ New York Mets — Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 58.0% · edge +6.7 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers ML (-146, FanDuel) · model 52.3% · edge -7.1 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies — Over 11.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 57.9% · edge +5.5 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.