San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 run line · confidence 43.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Carson Whisenhunt (6.11 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) vs Foster Griffin (3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–4.4; sim total 8.1 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +168 / -192 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -182 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to CLE -1.5 (covers 43.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.8% vs de-vigged market 63.8%: 7.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Carson Whisenhunt under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.315 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 79°F at first pitch: run environment x1.035. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 57.5% · edge +6.5 pts · divergence +8.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +168 / -192 | +168 / -192 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-113 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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