Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-146, FanDuel) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.1 pts · 0u
Jackson Kent (6.75 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) vs Cal Quantrill (3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.4; sim total 9.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +136 / -150 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -146 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 46.0%, de-vigged market says 58.6%: a 12.6-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Kent under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.321 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Texas Rangers ML (-146, FanDuel) · model 52.3% · edge -7.1 pts · divergence -12.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +136 / -150 | +107 / -127 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Texas Rangers ML (-146, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.69u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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