San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-109, DraftKings) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.9 pts · 0u
Robbie Ray (3.28 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Zac Thornton (2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4–4; sim total 8 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline -112 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -109 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.2% vs de-vigged market 51.4%: 2.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Zac Thornton under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.028, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.026. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 58.0% · edge +6.7 pts · divergence +8.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -112 / +100 | -131 / +112 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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