Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 42.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.6 pts · 0u
Eric Lauer (4.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Ryan Feltner (5.59 ERA, 1.49 WHIP).
Projected 6.4–6.1; sim total 12.5 against a 11.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -185 / +165 (consensus at board time) · total 11.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 42.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 63.2%: 11.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 42.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.083 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (65% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 11.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 57.9% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +6.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -185 / +165 | -191 / +165 |
| Total | 11.5 | 11.5 (o-109 / u-109) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 11.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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