Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-140, FanDuel) · confidence 55.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.2 pts · 0u
Sean Newcomb (2.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Clay Holmes (2.56 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.1 against a 8 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +127 / -141 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.2% vs de-vigged market 57.0%: 3.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.348 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.014. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +127 / -141 | +128 / -145 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-112 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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