The slate for Wednesday, August 19, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
15 games on the slate, 12 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 3 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, August 18, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Jackson Jobe (6.23) vs Paul Skenes (3.88) | 4.2–4.8 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 1:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Michael King (3.41) vs Robert Stock (6.57) | 4.2–4 | 8.2 / 8.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | AJ Smith-Shawver (4.15) vs Taj Bradley (3.98) | 4.7–4.5 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 2:20 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Sean Newcomb (2.51) vs Clay Holmes (2.56) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.1 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Brandon Pfaadt (3.11) vs Payton Tolle (2.97) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 6:05 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Sandy Alcantara (3.43) vs Aaron Nola (5.33) | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 / 9 |
| 6:35 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Will Warren (4.42) vs Chris Bassitt (5.11) | 4.2–4.3 | 8.5 / 9 |
| 6:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Matthew Liberatore (5.07) vs Chase Burns (2.47) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Max Scherzer (6.59) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.78) | 3.8–4.9 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Logan Gilbert (3.28) vs Dustin May (4.13) | 3.9–4.7 | 8.5 / 7 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Cade Cavalli (3.36) vs Kumar Rocker (4.50) | 4.9–4.2 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Roki Sasaki (4.46) vs Kyle Freeland (6.27) | 6.4–6 | 12.4 / 11.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATH, KC inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 8:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for HOU inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Washington Nationals ML (+120, FanDuel) — Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET. Edge +4.7 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.678. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays. Drew Rasmussen (2.78 ERA) against Max Scherzer (6.59) is a 3.8-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 12.4 runs.
- The total: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers. The sim lands on 9.1 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.6 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingSan Diego Padres @ New York Mets — Under 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +2.8 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 55.8% · edge +5.3 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +5.4 ptsedge-bandSeattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, DraftKings) · model 55.2% · edge +1.1 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Texas Rangers — Over 7.5 (-107, BetRivers) · model 56.6% · edge +4.9 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies — Over 11.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.5% · edge +5.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.