St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-140, DraftKings) · confidence 55.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.8 pts · 0u
Matthew Liberatore (5.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs Chase Burns (2.47 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline +131 / -148 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 58.0%: 4.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.063 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (60% air outs), away SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 55.8% · edge +5.3 pts · divergence +6.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +131 / -148 | +130 / -148 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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