Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, DraftKings) · confidence 55.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.1 pts · 0u
Logan Gilbert (3.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs Dustin May (4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.7; sim total 8.5 against a 7 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +107 / -121 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -118 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.3% vs de-vigged market 53.1%: 4.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.301 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, DraftKings) · model 55.2% · edge +1.1 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +107 / -121 | +109 / -126 |
| Total | 7 | 8 (o-116 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, DraftKings) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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