Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 run line · confidence 45.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.1 pts · 0u
Max Scherzer (6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.9; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +174 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -193 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to TB -1.5 (covers 45.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.0% vs de-vigged market 64.6%: 5.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Max Scherzer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +5.4 pts · divergence +6.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +174 / -200 | +175 / -200 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-122) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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