Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 43.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.7 pts · 0u
Roki Sasaki (4.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs Kyle Freeland (6.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).
Projected 6.4–6; sim total 12.4 against a 11.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -193 / +174 (consensus at board time) · total 11.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 43.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 64.3%: 11.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.317 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.084. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 11.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.5% · edge +5.8 pts · divergence +7.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -193 / +174 | -193 / +169 |
| Total | 11.5 | 11.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 11.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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