Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (+120, FanDuel) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +4.7 pts · 0u
Cade Cavalli (3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Kumar Rocker (4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.2; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +119 / -131 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.8% vs de-vigged market 44.6%: 11.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.678) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-107, BetRivers) · model 56.6% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +5.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +119 / -131 | +140 / -160 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-123 / u+102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-107, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date