San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-134, FanDuel) · confidence 53.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Michael King (3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Robert Stock (6.57 ERA, 1.86 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4; sim total 8.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline -136 / +122 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -134 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.5% vs de-vigged market 56.1%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Robert Stock under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.341 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.026, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.071. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -136 / +122 | -137 / +122 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date