Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-122, LowVig.ag) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.6 pts · 0u
Sandy Alcantara (3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Aaron Nola (5.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.4; sim total 9.2 against a 9 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline +111 / -124 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 46.8% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 7.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.065. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +2.8 pts · divergence +3.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +111 / -124 | +111 / -124 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.92u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date