New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-116, FanDuel) · confidence 51.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.7 pts · 0u
Will Warren (4.42 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs Chris Bassitt (5.11 ERA, 1.62 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.3; sim total 8.5 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -118 / +107 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -116 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.2% vs de-vigged market 52.8%: 3.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.279 trails league 0.315 by 0.036 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -118 / +107 | -118 / +106 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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