Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-124, FanDuel) · confidence 55.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
George Kirby (3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Robert Gasser (4.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.7; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +116 / -128 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -124 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.2% vs de-vigged market 54.8%: 1.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.301 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +116 / -128 | +116 / -132 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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