The slate for Thursday, August 20, 2026: 9 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
9 games on the slate, 9 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, August 19, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Michael McGreevy (3.48) vs Brady Singer (4.66) | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 1:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Landen Roupp (4.31) vs Gavin Williams (3.74) | 3.6–4.1 | 7.8 / 7 |
| 1:10 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Shane Bieber (4.99) vs Ian Seymour (4.11) | 4.1–4.8 | 8.9 / 7 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Gage Jump (4.50) vs Randy Dobnak (1.73) | 4.5–4.9 | 9.4 / 8 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox | Grant Holmes (3.82) vs Anthony Kay (4.01) | 4.8–4.8 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | George Kirby (3.89) vs Robert Gasser (4.54) | 4–4.7 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 6:35 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Gerrit Cole (3.22) vs Kyle Bradish (3.65) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Andrew Alvarez (3.72) vs Jacob deGrom (3.95) | 4.7–4.2 | 9 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Grayson Rodriguez (7.17) vs Peter Lambert (3.11) | 3.6–4.9 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: St. Louis Cardinals ML (-106, DraftKings) — St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 12:40 PM ET. Edge +0.9 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.609. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros. Peter Lambert (3.11 ERA) against Grayson Rodriguez (7.17) is a 4.1-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 8.9 runs against a 7 line — 1.9 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — Under 9 (-108, MyBookie.ag) · model 58.2% · edge +6.2 ptsmarket-provingAthletics @ Kansas City Royals — Over 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.1% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Texas Rangers — Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.3% · edge +3.6 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers ML (-158, DraftKings) · model 52.6% · edge -8.6 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +2.9 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.