Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-158, DraftKings) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -8.6 pts · 0u
Andrew Alvarez (3.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Jacob deGrom (3.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.2; sim total 9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +142 / -160 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -158 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 45.4%, de-vigged market says 59.8%: a 14.4-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.3% · edge +3.6 pts · divergence +5.3 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Texas Rangers ML (-158, DraftKings) · model 52.6% · edge -8.6 pts · divergence -14.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +142 / -160 | +156 / -178 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-103 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Texas Rangers ML (-158, DraftKings) — WIN (+0.63u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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