St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-106, DraftKings) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.9 pts · 0u
Michael McGreevy (3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Brady Singer (4.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.3; sim total 9.1 against a 9 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -109 / -103 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -106 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 50.7%: 3.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.008. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.609) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-108, MyBookie.ag) · model 58.2% · edge +6.2 pts · divergence +7.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -109 / -103 | -109 / -105 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-109 / u-110) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-108, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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