Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-159, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 58.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.3 pts · 0u
Shane Bieber (4.99 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs Ian Seymour (4.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.8; sim total 8.9 against a 7 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +144 / -161 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -159 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.0% vs de-vigged market 60.1%: 4.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Shane Bieber under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.312 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +144 / -161 | +144 / -161 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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