Athletics @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-177, LowVig.ag) · confidence 58.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.6 pts · 0u
J.T. Ginn (3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Hayden Wesneski (5.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +160 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -177 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 62.6%: 8.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hayden Wesneski under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +160 / -180 | +200 / -230 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date