The slate for Friday, August 21, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, August 20, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-3-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Chris Sale (2.16) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.75) | 3.5–4.1 | 7.7 / 6 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Mason Fluharty (3.71) vs Cam Schlittler (2.19) | 3.5–4.5 | 8.1 / 7 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Logan Webb (3.50) vs Sonny Gray (2.65) | 3.5–4.7 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Brad Lord (4.04) vs Ryan Gusto (4.70) | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Freddy Peralta (5.27) vs Trevor Rogers (4.15) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Sean Manaea (4.22) vs Sean Burke (3.15) | 4–4.8 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Troy Melton (1.49) vs Noah Cameron (4.16) | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Houston Astros | J.T. Ginn (3.53) vs Hayden Wesneski (5.16) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 8 |
| 8:15 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Reid Detmers (3.78) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.45) | 4.2–4 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Joey Cantillo (3.80) vs Tanner Gordon (5.55) | 5.4–5.7 | 11.2 / 10.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Nick Lodolo (4.52) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.71) | 3.8–5.1 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Bubba Chandler (4.23) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.60) | 4.3–4.8 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Matthew Boyd (4.02) vs Emerson Hancock (3.30) | 4.3–3.8 | 8.1 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for STL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Detroit Tigers ML (-108, FanDuel) — Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 8:10 PM ET. Edge +2.4 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.838. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals. Troy Melton (1.49 ERA) against Noah Cameron (4.16) is a 2.7-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers. The sim lands on 7.7 runs against a 6 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.2 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingAtlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers — Over 6 (-110, BetUS) · model 55.9% · edge +3.5 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Miami Marlins — Over 7.5 (-113, MyBookie.ag) · model 56.4% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +3.5 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies — Over 10.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 56.6% · edge +4.2 ptsR8-holdPittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-215, FanDuel) · model 41.6% · edge -7.5 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners — Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 59.4% · edge +7.1 ptsedge-bandChicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners — Chicago Cubs ML (+100, FanDuel) · model 51.8% · edge +1.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.