Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (+100, FanDuel) · confidence 51.8% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.8 pts · 0u
Matthew Boyd (4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Emerson Hancock (3.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–3.8; sim total 8.1 against a 8 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +100 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.9% vs de-vigged market 49.7%: 4.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.335 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 59.4% · edge +7.1 pts · divergence +8.6 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Chicago Cubs ML (+100, FanDuel) · model 51.8% · edge +1.8 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -108 | +101 / -118 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-114 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Chicago Cubs ML (+100, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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