New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-138, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 56.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.4 pts · 0u
Sean Manaea (4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Sean Burke (3.15 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.8; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -140 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.3% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.032. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -140 | +102 / -118 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date