Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-122, BetUS) · confidence 53.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.5 pts · 0u
Freddy Peralta (5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs Trevor Rogers (4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +112 / -126 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 54.2%: 1.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.341 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.028, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +3.5 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +112 / -126 | -130 / +115 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-108 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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