San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-168, FanDuel) · confidence 61.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.7 pts · 0u
Logan Webb (3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs Sonny Gray (2.65 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 3.5–4.7; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +156 / -177 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -168 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.0% vs de-vigged market 62.1%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 61.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.265 trails league 0.313 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 68°F at first pitch: run environment x0.994. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +156 / -177 | +180 / -209 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date