Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees -1.5 run line · confidence 44.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Mason Fluharty (3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Cam Schlittler (2.19 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).
Projected 3.5–4.5; sim total 8.1 against a 7 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +175 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -194 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to NYY -1.5 (covers 44.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.9% vs de-vigged market 64.7%: 5.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 44.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Fluharty under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +175 / -200 | +109 / -120 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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