Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-140, FanDuel) · confidence 58.8% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Nick Lodolo (4.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–5.1; sim total 9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +129 / -142 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.3% vs de-vigged market 57.3%: 3.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.260 trails league 0.313 by 0.053 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +129 / -142 | +140 / -163 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date