Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-150, FanDuel) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.4 pts · 0u
Joey Cantillo (3.80 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Tanner Gordon (5.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).
Projected 5.4–5.7; sim total 11.2 against a 10.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -153 / +138 (consensus at board time) · total 10.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -150 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.2% vs de-vigged market 59.0%: 10.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 94°F at first pitch: run environment x1.097 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (63% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 10.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 56.6% · edge +4.2 pts · divergence +5.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -153 / +138 | -137 / +121 |
| Total | 10.5 | 11 (o-112 / u-106) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 10.5 (-110, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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