Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 41.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.5 pts · 0u
Bubba Chandler (4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.8; sim total 9.2 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +199 / -226 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (5 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -215 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 41.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 54.0%, de-vigged market says 67.5%: a 13.4-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.321 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-215, FanDuel) · model 41.6% · edge -7.5 pts · divergence -13.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +199 / -226 | +215 / -260 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-215, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.47u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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