Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135, Caesars) · confidence 56.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.4 pts · 0u
Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP).
Projected 3.5–4.1; sim total 7.7 against a 6 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -141 (consensus at board time) · total 6.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -135 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.4% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 1.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.266 trails league 0.313 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6 (-110, BetUS) · model 55.9% · edge +3.5 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -141 | +123 / -139 |
| Total | 6 | 6 (o+100 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6 (-110, BetUS) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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