Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (-145, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.4 pts · 0u
Brad Lord (4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Ryan Gusto (4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.4; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +130 / -147 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -145 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.8% vs de-vigged market 57.8%: 10.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ryan Gusto under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, MyBookie.ag) · model 56.4% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +130 / -147 | +158 / -180 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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