Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-108, FanDuel) · confidence 54.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.4 pts · 0u
Troy Melton (1.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) vs Noah Cameron (4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.1; sim total 8.9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -115 / +104 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -108 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.4% vs de-vigged market 52.2%: 4.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.298 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.837) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -115 / +104 | -105 / -107 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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