Athletics @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros -1.5 run line · confidence 43.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.1 pts · 0u
Jacob Lopez (5.22 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs Hunter Brown (3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5; sim total 9.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +210 / -238 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -232 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to HOU -1.5 (covers 43.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.9% vs de-vigged market 68.6%: 11.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +210 / -238 | +210 / -241 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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