The slate for Saturday, August 22, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 8 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 8 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, August 21, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 2-5 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Dylan Cease (2.42) vs Ryan Weathers (3.56) | 3.9–4.1 | 8 / 6.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Martín Pérez (3.15) vs Logan Henderson (2.70) | 3.8–4.5 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Jake Irvin (5.80) vs Eury Pérez (3.23) | 4.4–4.7 | 9.1 / 7.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Shane McClanahan (3.25) vs Brandon Young (3.52) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Ryan Johnson (6.41) vs Cody Bradford (2.93) | 3.8–4.6 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Houston Astros | Jacob Lopez (5.22) vs Hunter Brown (3.67) | 4.2–5 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Christian Scott (3.51) vs Luis Castillo (4.99) | 4.4–4.6 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Drew Anderson (4.01) vs Michael Wacha (3.58) | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Jared Jones (4.78) vs Tarik Skubal (2.85) | 4.4–4.9 | 9.3 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Blade Tidwell (4.33) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.76) | 3.8–4.9 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Rhett Lowder (5.17) vs Michael Soroka (2.93) | 3.7–5.1 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Tanner Bibee (4.01) vs Gabriel Hughes (6.69) | 5.4–5.8 | 11.2 / 11 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Dean Kremer (5.40) vs Casey Mize (3.18) | 3.8–4.5 | 8.4 / 8.5 |
| 6:05 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for STL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:15 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SEA inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: New York Yankees ML (-104, FanDuel) — Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 1:35 PM ET. Edge +0.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.497. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers. Cody Bradford (2.93 ERA) against Ryan Johnson (6.41) is a 3.5-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The sim lands on 9.3 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.8 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.2 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingToronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees — Over 6.5 (-118, MyBookie.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +4.9 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers — Under 8 (-110, BetRivers) · model 57.8% · edge +5.4 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Miami Marlins — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.4% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 56.8% · edge +6.3 ptsmarket-provingDetroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals — Over 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +4.2 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 7.5 (-106, MyBookie.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +6.0 ptsR8-holdPittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-245, FanDuel) · model 42.1% · edge -9.0 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 8 (-105, Bovada) · model 53.2% · edge +2.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.