Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-155, Caesars) · confidence 58.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.7 pts · 0u
Martín Pérez (3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Logan Henderson (2.70 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.5; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +142 / -158 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -155 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.5% vs de-vigged market 59.7%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.266 trails league 0.313 by 0.047 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, BetRivers) · model 57.8% · edge +5.4 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +142 / -158 | +140 / -158 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date