Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-134, FanDuel) · confidence 52.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.2 pts · 0u
Tanner Bibee (4.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Gabriel Hughes (6.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP).
Projected 5.4–5.8; sim total 11.2 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -140 / +125 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -134 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.4% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 9.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Gabriel Hughes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.314 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.046. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -140 / +125 | -165 / +144 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-119 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date