Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-104, FanDuel) · confidence 51.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.2 pts · 0u
Dylan Cease (2.42 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs Ryan Weathers (3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.1; sim total 8 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.319 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.018. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.498) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-118, MyBookie.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -105 | -106 / -105 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-118, MyBookie.ag) — WIN (+0.85u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date