Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins -1.5 run line · confidence 40.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.4 pts · 0u
Jake Irvin (5.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Eury Pérez (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -177 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -175 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to MIA -1.5 (covers 40.3% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.5% vs de-vigged market 62.0%: 9.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 40.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.305 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.4% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -177 | +157 / -180 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date