Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-158, FanDuel) · confidence 58.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.7 pts · 0u
Ryan Johnson (6.41 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) vs Cody Bradford (2.93 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.6; sim total 8.4 against a 8 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +143 / -163 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -158 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.9% vs de-vigged market 60.1%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cody Bradford under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.275 trails league 0.313 by 0.038 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 56.8% · edge +6.3 pts · divergence +7.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +143 / -163 | +147 / -166 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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