Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-104, FanDuel) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.4 pts · 0u
Drew Anderson (4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Michael Wacha (3.58 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.4; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.7% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 2.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.296 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.069 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +4.2 pts · divergence +5.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -105 | -106 / -105 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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