San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 45.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.0 pts · 0u
Blade Tidwell (4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.76 ERA, 1.85 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.9; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +180 / -205 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -195 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 45.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.0% vs de-vigged market 65.3%: 6.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Blade Tidwell, Patrick Sandoval under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.268 trails league 0.313 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 70°F at first pitch: run environment x1.000. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +180 / -205 | +175 / -212 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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