Athletics @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros -1.5 run line · confidence 40.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.0 pts · 0u
Brady Basso (3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Cristian Javier (6.44 ERA, 1.68 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.8; sim total 9.2 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +156 / -177 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -171 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to HOU -1.5 (covers 40.2% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 62.1%: 9.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 40.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Brady Basso, Cristian Javier under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-116, LowVig.ag) · model 59.3% · edge +5.6 pts · divergence +7.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +156 / -177 | +154 / -175 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-116, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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