The slate for Sunday, August 23, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
15 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:35 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Nick Martinez (3.05) vs Shane Baz (4.02) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Kyle Leahy (3.24) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.51) | 4.1–4.5 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | José Soriano (3.23) vs Carlos Rodón (3.22) | 3.9–4.4 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Jackson Kent (9.39) vs Janson Junk (4.37) | 4.6–4.6 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Jacob Waguespack (1.95) vs Daniel Lynch IV (2.83) | 4.7–4.4 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Houston Astros | Brady Basso (3.91) vs Cristian Javier (6.44) | 4.4–4.8 | 9.2 / 9 |
| 2:10 PM ET | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Nolan McLean (3.34) vs Sean Newcomb (2.44) | 4–4.6 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 2:35 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Yusei Kikuchi (5.81) vs Cal Quantrill (3.13) | 4–4.3 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Foster Griffin (3.18) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (4.70) | 5.6–5.7 | 11.2 / 11 |
| 3:15 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Matt Wilkinson (0.00) vs Jake Bennett (3.46) | 3.9–4.9 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Lake Bachar (3.75) vs Blake Snell (3.60) | 4.6–4.9 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Shota Imanaga (3.77) vs Bryce Miller (3.71) | 4.3–3.8 | 8.1 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Bailey Ober (4.62) vs Walker Buehler (4.79) | 4.2–4.5 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 4:15 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Andrew Abbott (4.07) vs Mitch Bratt (4.17) | 4.2–5 | 9.2 / 9 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Tyler Mahle (4.53) vs Shane Drohan (3.86) | 3.9–4.7 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) — New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10 PM ET. Edge +1.8 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.695. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins. Janson Junk (4.37 ERA) against Jackson Kent (9.39) is a 5.0-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The argument: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 19.6 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
- The park: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.2 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 9 (-118, FanDuel) · model 62.7% · edge +8.6 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 8 (-105, Caesars) · model 53.6% · edge +2.4 ptsR8-holdSt. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies ML (-210, FanDuel) · model 40.5% · edge -7.4 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees — Under 8 (-106, FanDuel) · model 54.9% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingAthletics @ Houston Astros — Under 9 (-116, LowVig.ag) · model 59.3% · edge +5.6 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Chicago White Sox — Under 8 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 54.7% · edge +4.7 ptsedge-bandNew York Mets @ Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) · model 52.8% · edge +1.8 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +4.3 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 52.6% · edge +3.8 ptsR8-holdPittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-265, MyBookie.ag) · model 40.5% · edge -10.9 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 58.7% · edge +7.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.