Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-103, BetRivers) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Nick Martinez (3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Shane Baz (4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.3; sim total 8.7 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -103 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.6% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 0.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.338 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-118, FanDuel) · model 62.7% · edge +8.6 pts · divergence +10.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -105 | -102 / -112 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-102 / u-116) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-118, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.85u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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